August Monthly Commentary

There has been a lot of talk in the media about a possible recession. The good news for Augusta is that the probability of a recession is still low. The probability that the local economy is in a recession is 1.4%. The labor market is still strong with high employment and rising wages. The outlook may be less rosy but doesn’t indicate a recession. The Augusta Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been negative for 5 out of the last 7 months but the probability of a recession in the next year is less than 1 percent.